Causes of War

 

Causes of war

Cacildo Marques - Sao Paulo

   Among the three causes of war, the main one was perceived by the United States at the end of World War II: The longevity of the chief of State. As a result, the country limited the permanence of the same president to two four-year terms.

   France, another of the five members of what would become the UN Security Council, was already limiting the presidential limit to two seven years. Under the Sarkozy administration, that was reduced to two five-year terms.

   The big problem is that the other three members never incorporated this very important acknowledgement into their culture. China instituted a two-quinquennium limit in 1982, but in 2019 the current administration undid the statute. Russia, also in 1982, with General Yuri Andropov, began its trajectory for institution of short terms, but this purpose was abandoned by the current leader, who in 2020 approved permission to repeat six-year terms, without needing, like before, to alternate the position with that of prime minister.

   The UK has not relinquished the monarchy, but relies on periodic replacements of the head of government and the reduced power of the chief of State as a guarantee of peace.

   The other two causes, according to my book "The Three Causes of War" (2019) are the installation of new capital (new residence of the commander in chief) and the adoption of theocracy by the chief of State.

   But the longevity of the chief of State is by far the most decisive cause. If Hitler had served a five-year term, leaving in 1939, or even a seven-year term, until 1941, there would never have been World War II. The same can be said about the permanence of Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian War (this longevity of the Syrian president is a project of the Russian president).

   The UN can map among the various countries which nations have held heads of State for more than ten years (outside of constitutional monarchies with short-term governments). All of them are powder kegs. The most problematic are North Korea, Equatorial Guinea, Russia, China, Belarus, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Syria. On the healthy path, we can also map out those nations that have limited the permanence of their chief of State to a maximum of ten years. Cuba, for example, did this a few years ago. These countries need to be supported so that they do not deform in the wake of China.